Q: Ive been reading a few weeks now that Pentium 4 processors are in short supply. I wonder what exactly is going on. I come with several possible reasons, purely based on conjecture;)
1. Shifts to Northwood has diverted production away from Willamette, which declined overall supply Willamette.
2. Crossing the Willamette processors, Intel has cut total production. Intel may have seriously miscalculated the number of P4 processors needed to meet a higher than expected demand.
3. Contamination and / or other related Fab issue.
4. Yields Willamette not accetable, decreasing total supply.
I think the first reason is the most realistic. Any ideas?
EDIT: Here is the link (http://www.eetimes.com/story/OEG20011128S0016) finally convinced me to post about this subject.
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Re:Could be any of the reasons already posted or a combo of them. I'm just wondering though, if Intel has too many products and not enough fab space allocated to the right product(s).
Also, if my memory serves me well, didn't Intel cancel a bunch of fab equipment orders during the summer? I'm wondering if they have/had over reacted to the economic downturn and now find themselves with a bunch of fabs that need upgraded yesterday?
[wild conjecture...wilder then the previous]This all seems kinda strange though, have there been any reports on PC sales lately? Seems that P4 sales are probably finally biting into the P3/Celeron market, and it also seems that Intel didn't expect it to happen as much as it did.[/wild conjecture...wilder then the previous]
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Re:And Northwood is manufactured in completely separate fabs than Willamette. So, it can't really divert production from Willamette.
Fine, but what was originally produced in that fab? Even if Intel is currently using a separate fab for producing Northwoods, there must have been something else fabed there before Northwood production began, and I'm guessing it was Willamettes (to the best of my knowledge, Intel didn't build a seperate fab for Northwood recently, so if the fab Intel is using right now to produce Northwoods was used in the past to fab Willamettes, then the total supply of Willamettes would decrease, which seems like a good possible reason for the current P4 shortage).
Btw, how come Intel has consistently had shortages of their flagships in the past few years. The Coppermines, Willamettes, etc.?
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Re:Here are my thoughts:
1) Your link suggested that the 1.5 GHz version is in the shortest supply.
- If it were poor yields wouldn't it be the 1.7 GHz – 2.0 GHz models in the shortest supply?
- I cannot watch more than 10 minutes of TV without seeing at least one commercial from IBM or Dell advertizing the 1.5 GHz part for low prices.
2) Your link suggested that the 478 pin version is in short supply.
- Intel wanted a slow and smooth transition from 423 to 478 pins.
- Big manufacturers like Dell completely and abruptly eliminated their use of the 423 pin version.
- Thus maybe Intel miscalculated the percent of the 478 pin version they should produce and instead made too many 423 pin chips.
3) I think computer demand is finally starting to pick back up. Main reason: the computers bought in late 1999 preparing for Y2K are starting to age (this is also a major reason why computer sales were so bad this last year – everyone had a new computer).
- Maybe Intel didn't see this demand increase fast enough.
4) Intel recently said it will meet market revenue expectations for this quarter.
- This is another sign that the chip downturn may be ending.
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Re:It's demand, demand, and demand. Especially at the high end. (Take a look at memory prices, also. That also suggests demand is exceeding supply.)
No fab issues since yields and output are exceeding forecasts.
Semi-conductors were the first ones into a recession and they'll be the first ones to come out. Perhaps XP has been the catalyst to start this.
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Re:Why, becuase intel sux!
j/k. lmao 
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Re:To me it all makes sense. P3 is no longer a viable end user desktop solution.. in my opinion.
That leaves celeron and P4 for Intel CPUs. But I'm seeing less and less system integraters who uses celeron, except in extream budget model. Maybe much to do with 845 chipset board and cheap SDRAM bundled with it. Intel has positioned P4 right where they want it to be. The trend will continue as SiS, Ali, Via, and intel's own 845 B-steping chipset rolls out more matured chipsets and the competition will only get hotter. Well.. at least until P4 celeron appears
The raw, core clock speed gap between Athlon and P4 also helped a little I think. Maybe AMD's new performance rating scheme will pay off.. but they surely, surely are not hoping that the average Joes will be suddenly educated and start looking for various benchmarks before they make decision on the computers..
They need a brand new core that can clock very fast.. in my opinion.
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Re:I'll put my money on #4 poor yields
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Re:Isnt it the same every year with intel? Demand simply outweighs how many they can supply to the market for xmas period.
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Re:Isn't "5. High Demand" a possibility.
Yeah, it's #2. Read this part:
Intel has possibly severely miscalculated the number of P4 processors necessary to meet a higher than expected demand.
I said that in a kinda weird way, but it's there.
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Re:Isn't "5. High Demand" a possibility.
And Northwood is manufactured in completely separate fabs than Willamette. So, it can't really divert production from Willamette.
Re:<< 1. Shifting to Northwood has diverted production away from Willamette, which has decreased total Willamette supply. >>
that was kinda what i was thinking.
make less of the ones now, drive up demand to clear old units, then release the northwood with few old units in inventory. makes the most sense. and it's entirely possible they are just selling the shiznit out of them
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